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Exports-driven gas producer's international business targets pricing risk assessment



Munasypov A.M. (Ufa State Oil Technical University, RF, Ufa)

E-mail: Arthurik001@mail.ru

This paper considers various risks involved in oil and gas producer international activities. Price risks were found to be among the most critical for exports-driven companies such as Gazprom. The underlying analysis covers risks typical of different pricing models and identifies the highest risk for spot models. Building on the authors algorithm, the paper analyses an export scenario for Russian gas under spot price uncertainty, using Monte Carlo method. The proposal aims at initial assessment of potential loss as well as timely management of risk minimisation and revenue offset issues, and centres on spot price projections believed suitable for an efficient Gazproms pricing mechanism.

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